The mathematical answer is: everyone. But things are a little more complicated and it will be a duo between South Africa and New Zealand
There is only one round of the 2022 rugby tournament left, and there is still a lot of uncertainty about which team can take the most important trophy in the southern hemisphere.
The order of 80 minutes from the end of the match was as follows: New Zealand 14, South Africa 14, Australia 10 and Argentina 9.
The Rugby Championship Regulations states that to equalize scores in the ranking, the first criterion is the number of victories recorded in the tournament, the second is the number of victories recorded in direct matches between teams equal in points, and the third is the difference in. absolute points.
What results could lead each of the four teams to lift the trophy?
It is almost impossible for Pumas to return to the rugby tournament. The results needed to allow for historic success would be Argentina winning in Durban by at least an offensive bonus point by 36 points and defeating New Zealand in Australia by at least 48 points without the Wallabies scoring 3 more attempts than all the Blacks.
Mathematics is more than possible. In fact, science fiction.
To win Australia has to win in New Zealand. A very complicated task that also requires aligning another unlikely outcome, namely, Argentina’s victory in South Africa by more than 7 points.
Given the wide margins of points difference between the Wallabies and the two teams at the top of the ranking, the victory over opponents should also come with a bonus point: it will be a historical result, without precedent, given that in the rugby tournament the bonus attack is obtained only by scoring 3 more attempts than opponents.
If Australia wins in New Zealand, the Springboks will be champions if they win or draw against Argentina. If Australia wins without an offensive bonus, a defeat of less than 7 points will be enough. In the case of the Wallabies’ offensive bonus, however, Springboks can rely on strength the difference The points difference between the two teams: a 47-point win would be necessary for the Australians to finish first.
If the All Blacks win in Auckland, but without an offensive bonus point, the Springboks will have to win the bonus or by a points difference greater than the New Zealanders over the Australians by at least 13 points. Example: If New Zealand wins 39-37 like last week, South Africa will need to beat Argentina by at least 15 points. Difficult but not impossible.
On the other hand, if the All Blacks win the offensive bonus point, the Springboks will need to determine the bonus. e A point difference higher than the New Zealanders over the Australians by at least 13 points. Example: If New Zealand wins 21-0, South Africa will have to beat Argentina by at least 34 points.
Starting with the lead, the All Blacks mode is the simplest. If South Africa lose to Argentina, it will be enough for the New Zealanders to avoid an unrewarded defensive defeat at home to Australia.
A tie between the Springboks and the Pumas would force at least one more draw for the All Blacks, while if South Africa won without an offensive bonus, the All Blacks would be forced to win by keeping as much of the championship cushion as possible. They currently have 13 points difference. Separation between the two squads.
Finally, winning the South African bounty in Durban would force the All Blacks to do the same. The trophy will be theirs if they can beat Australia by at least 13 points more than the Springboks made over the Pumas.
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